04/11/2023
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Chelsea could have copied Real Madrid, but are a pale imitation of Champions League's greatest club
Real Madrid vs Chelsea picks and predictions
We’ve got a Champions League classic on Wednesday with Real Madrid vs. Chelsea from the Santiago Bernabeau.
Real Madrid are sitting second domestically and a full 12 points behind Barcelona. However, that’s far better than Chelsea, who are just 12 points from the relegation zone and a huge 34 points behind league leaders Arsenal.
Chelsea’s season has been so bad that they sacked Graham Potter before replacing him with fan favorite Frank Lampard. He's a legend as a player, but Lampard is so poor as a manager that Chelsea already sacked him once, so it feels like the club is waving the white flag on its season.
While Chelsea have all but given up this term with no hope of domestic success, they're in the last eight of the Champions League. Nobody expects Chelsea to win this tie, let alone the Champions League, so in many ways it feels like a free outing for Lampard. No expectations, no pressure, just send the players out there and try to win.
But they won't win. The Premier League is the strongest on the planet, but Chelsea are very poor right now and Lampard isn’t the man to sort that out, especially against a Real Madrid team that always shows up for the big occasions. You’re getting -140 to back Real Madrid on the moneyline, and I’m absolutely certain it’ll hit. But it's too short for me to suggest backing as my best bet. Then I considered the handicap with Real Madrid -1 on the spread, which at +187 feels like value since they'll likely notch at least a two-goal victory. But +278 for Real Madrid to win and Vinicius Junior to score feels like incredible value.
This is a Chelsea team that's only won 10 Premier League games all season, with just four of those triumphs coming away from Stamford Bridge. The club has been very poor in general, but away from home Chelsea has been especially bad. They’ve won just one game as the visitor in 2023, and that came against a 10-man Leicester City squad.
Real Madrid are far from their best, and they’re an aging team with the likes of Toni Kroos and Luka Modric. But we’ve said that for the past few years and they always turn up when it matters most. I really think Real Madrid winning this one is a formality at this stage.
The key to our best bet is Vinicius Junior, and the Brazilian has been growing from a promising forward to one of the best players on the planet over the past 12-18 months. The 22-year-old has scored 20 goals for Real Madrid in 2022-23, nine in the league, another six in the Champions, and then more across various cups. He’s absolutely electric, and Junior has been developing a habit of scoring big goals at important moments, much like the great players in that famous white shirt do frequently.
He's so quick, incisive with his dribbling, and smart with his play. Now he’s added goals to his output, making him exceptional. He faces a tough matchup against Reece James, a brilliant right-back. But there's still a good chance he scores, and at +278 we’re getting a really nice price on him doing that and Real Madrid taking home the win.
Real Madrid vs Chelsea Over/Under analysis
The total goals market really is a pick’em this week, with Under 2.5 goals slightly favored at -108 and Over 2.5 at -105. Given what we’ve seen recently from Real Madrid and the way they took Liverpool apart, I’d lean toward the Over, especially given that Lampard was never a particularly defensive manager during his first spell at Chelsea.
Over 2.5 goals has cashed in 64.3% of Real Madrid’s La Liga games at the Santiago Bernabeu, and it hit in two of their four Champions League contests so far this season. It’s tough to be too confident either way in this market, especially given the lack of data around this Chelsea team under Lampard. But back the Over if you’re looking to wager on this market.
